- When bitcoin’s price sank below $30,000, Will Clemente was confident it would rebound.
- The college sophomore has made a name for himself in the crypto community with his predictions.
- Clemente details on-chain data that illustrates why he believes bitcoin’s bull run has legs.
When bitcoin fell below $30,000 a coin, many in the crypto community said that it might be an end to the bull run for the leading digital asset. Will Clemente III, a 19-year-old college sophomore from East Carolina University, wasn’t so worried.
The crypto whiz kid was convinced bitcoin would return to above $30,000 a coin based on his dissection of blockchain metrics. And so far, it looks like he was right.
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Bitcoin is back to trading above the all-important $30,000 support level, and as of Thursday, it had even pushed to above $32,000 a coin.
This isn’t the first time Clemente has made a prescient bitcoin prediction. He has made a name for himself in the crypto community and garnered over 140,000 Twitter followers by dishing out prophetic bitcoin analysis, often based on largely public on-chain data.
While the media is usually laser-focused on events like the recent B Word conference, at which Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Square’s Jack Dorsey, and Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood defended bitcoin, Clemente tends to avoid looking at the day-to-day bitcoin news cycle, opting for a more data-focused approach to analyzing the digital asset.
In an exclusive interview with Insider, the rising crypto star broke down the four reasons he remained bullish on bitcoin’s prospects.
1) A rising number of individual entities on the bitcoin network
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The number of entities on the bitcoin network is often a sign of the health of the ecosystem. More entities mean more new bitcoiners buying the asset and entering the crypto fray.
Clemente said data from the crypto-analytics firm Glassnode showed the number of bitcoin entities had continued to move higher in recent weeks, even as the asset’s price remained about $30,000 a coin.
He also said when bitcoin peaked in the past, new buyers flooded to the market, only to quickly disappear. This time, Clemente said, things are different.
“During each major peak in 2011, 2013, and 2017, there was a euphoric spike in this, followed by a sharp decline,” Clemente said. “What we’re actually seeing now is a steady grind upwards, in combination with heavy accumulation from smaller entities.”
2) The whales are hungry
Clemente added that bitcoin “whales,” investors who hold more than 1,000 bitcoins, had begun re-accumulating supply in recent weeks. According to data from Glassnode, over the past three weeks, whales added over 96,000 bitcoins to their holdings.
These whales often represent institutions, funds, custodians, over-the-counter desks, and other high-net-worth people who have the power to materially move the market. Experts said signs of increased buying from whales could be indicative of consistent institutional adoption, the holy grail for crypto bulls.
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While the overall supply held by these entities is still well below what it was during the euphoria from earlier this year, the figure has begun to recover significantly, which gives Clemente hope that bitcoin’s price will soon follow suit.
3) Coins are moving to ‘strong hands’
Bitcoin supply has been moving to long-term holders who don’t have a track record of sales in recent months, Clemente said. In the chart below, which shows the number of coins held by “strong hands,” Clemente illustrates the “massive divergence between accumulation behavior and price action” since March.
Unlike at previous market tops, as illustrated above, there hasn’t been a massive sell-off of bitcoin holdings from long-term holders, who could likely take profit off the table.
Clemente said bitcoin’s “strong hands” holders often experienced periods of capitulation and mass selling after past market corrections. This time, after bitcoin’s drop in price from above $60,000 a coin, these long-term bitcoin holders weren’t as eager to sell, and they’re already re-accumulating coins.
4) Miners are now net accumulators
Finally, Clemente said bitcoin miners had begun adding the cryptocurrency to their holdings again. The group had been net sellers of bitcoin after China’s bitcoin-mining ban went into effect, but with mining operations moving abroad, miners have once again started accumulating the cryptocurrency.
With the billions at stake for public miners like Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings, the group has a huge incentive to support bitcoin’s price by holding the coins they mint to ensure supply is kept under control.